Climate Futures

Climate change is a feature of the 21st century. Making sensible choices on how we can adapt to climate change hinges on understanding what changes are likely, where they are likely, and when they will start to have a significant impact.

ACE has developed world class climate science and modelling capability through its Climate Futures for Tasmania project. The project is possible with support through funding and research of a consortium of national and Tasmanian state partners.

Climate Futures uses sophisticated climate modelling techniques and current knowledge to describe the most likely future climate scenarios for the state of Tasmania. The data generated better represents Tasmania’s geography and its effect on the local climate. The climate projections are computer-simulated and produce data to use in decision-making processes. Climate Futures interprets climate projections at a local scale, so that communities, industries and individuals can use information in their local planning and adaptation actions.

The Climate Futures project details the general impacts of climate change in Tasmania over the 21st century, with a description of past and present climate and projections for the future.  It also looks at the impacts in the applied areas of water and catchments, assessing how water will flow through various Tasmanian water catchments and into storage reservoirs under different climate scenarios; and agriculture, assessing specific climate indicators most important for productivity in several key agricultural groups.  Finally, working with emergency service agencies, the project identifies the climate variables of greatest concern to emergency managers.


View: Dr Tony Press discusses the Climate Futures project


Projects and project leaders


Read the Reports: download the full technical reports and their companion summaries:

Climate Modelling technical report, summary

General Climate Impacts technical report, summary

Impacts on Agriculture technical report, summary

Water and Catchments technical report, summary

Extreme Events technical report, summary

Our Partners: Find out more about our partners: Climate Futures for Tasmania is possible with support through funding and research of a consortium of state and national partners.

Download: Contacts for Climate Futures for Tasmania

Research Utilisation

Data are being made available to many sectors of the community including state and local government, emergency services, water authorities, power companies, farmers, graziers, fruit growers, vignerons and researchers. The project scientists interpret these data to assist decision making, and the data are distributed in a format that assists their incorporation into decision-making and planning systems. The project will also provide an accessible basis for subsequent climate change research by archiving fine-scale climate model outputs for the entire state of Tasmania. ACE commercial participants use the Climate Futures data set to develop specific commercial products, for example a tool that identifies and communicates the risks that climate change poses for infrastructure.


Climate change commentator Peter Boyer writes about the project here


News story: Climate Futures research put to work


News story: Research shines a light on new agricultural landscape


News story: Rivers and catchments will change with the climate

News story: New research projects increase in extreme weather events

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