Dr John Church, CSIRO Marine Research Project Leader, Sea Level Rise 03 6232 5207 john.church@csiro.au

Project Overview

Increased confidence in our understanding of changes in sea level during the 20th century depends on more accurate estimates of 20th century thermal expansion from ocean observations and the confirmation that climate models realistically simulate these observations. This confirmation will reduce the uncertainty in future projections of thermal expansion. It is projected that sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century and after 2100, but the rate and amount of rise in the longer time frame are highly uncertain, with estimates ranging from centimetres to several metres. Regional estimates of projected sea-level rise will contribute to regional planning and identifying the potential risks from future changes in sea level.

Project Objectives

• To improve estimates of contribution from ocean thermal expansion to 20th and 21st century changes in sea level.
• To reduce uncertainty in the longer-term projections of changes in ocean thermal expansion.

National Collaborators

• Australian Greenhouse Office Climate Change Science Programme
• CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship
• CSIRO Climate Multi-Divisional Program

International Collaborators

The project is critically dependent on freely available global and national data sets.  

• The international oceanographic data archives
• The international Argo Project
• The CSIRO and the IPCC model data sets

• SLR-02: Project Background
• SLR-02: Research Plan