Dr Steve Rintoul
Program Leader, Climate and Variability
A/Prof Nathan Bindoff, University of Tasmania
Project Leader, Climate Variability and Change

03 6226 2986
nathan.bindoff@acecrc.org.au
CVC-04: Simulation of Ice-Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Climate

Project Overview

Variability in the Southern Ocean (including changes in sea ice) contributes to variations in weather and climate in the southern part of Australia. The goal of this project is to characterise and understand this variability. Our main interest is in the processes that affect climate variability near Australia and Antarctica, and in activities related to the forecasting of sea ice motion.

We are using numerical simulations of the various components of the Southern Ocean, which are tested and validated against observational data from the other ACE CRC programs. These simulations and their underlying models allow us to diagnose the important processes acting in the Southern Ocean that both influence and respond to global and regional climate.

The resulting enhanced climate models will be able to simulate Southern Ocean processes and will deliver more reliable projections of climate variability and change and related impacts. This will allow scientists to be more quantitative and specific about climate predictions such as changes in precipitation over the Australian continent or changes in snow accumulation over the Antarctic continent (an important factor in potential sea-level rise). These improved projections and forecasts can help guide Australian decision-makers in the formulation of policy and management strategies to respond to future climate change.

The ocean also plays an important role in the distribution of sea ice around Antarctica. Due to its ability to reflect sunlight, sea ice is a critical factor in the Earth's global radiation budget (and therefore global temperature). It is also an essential factor in the overturning ocean circulation that distributes heat around the globe, and in the maintenance of Antarctic marine ecosystems. Better models of the current distribution of sea ice, its variations over the last 30 years, and forecasts for the future are important for understanding the impact of climate change on these systems.  

Project Objectives

The goal of the project is to characterise and understand the variability of the Southern Ocean, with a particular focus on the overturning circulation, major current systems and frontal zones, water mass formation and stratification. Specific objectives are:

  • To characterise the variability of Southern Ocean currents and sea ice, and understand the causes of variability.
  • To determine the likelihood and impact of significant changes in the Southern Ocean physical environment, especially for key water masses, the overturning circulation and sea ice in response to variations in the forcing.
  • To combine state-of-the-art observations and numerical models to provide simulations and forecasts of ocean currents and sea ice for Southern Ocean applications, including detection and attribution of variations in key water masses to observed variations in atmospheric forcing, sensitivity of water mass formation and climate change detection.

National Collaborators

  • AusCOM group (CSIRO, BMRC)

International Collaborators