Dr Andrew Constable Project Leader, Antarctic Marine Ecosystems 03 6232 3558 andrew.constable@aad.gov.au

Project Overview

The main goal of this project is to develop a framework for marine ecosystem modelling, including a coupled biophysical model of the Southern Ocean, in order to explore and assess the consequences to the ecosystem of historical exploitation of biota in the Southern Ocean, the ecological sustainability of exploitation and conservation strategies in the Southern Ocean, and the impacts of climate change on the ecology of the Southern Ocean.

We aim to provide flexible software that can be used by researchers to simulate the Southern Ocean ecosystem at multiple scales.

Four major actions guide the development of this modelling framework.

1.      We will undertake a whole ocean food web simulation in conjunction with the large-scale ocean models, based on conceptual models of the important ecosystem dynamics in the Southern Ocean. This will also assist in identifying key gaps to be addressed in the remaining project.

2.      We will develop more refined models to enable investigations of local (10² km) and regional-scale dynamics (10³ km), thereby providing ecosystem models to investigate the sustainability of fishery practices. This will be made possible by advances in other projects on the nature of relationships and processes at these scales.

3.      We will investigate the robustness of the models to process uncertainties, particularly processes at small scales (10^-3 km - 10⁰ km).

4.      We will assess the potential for Southern Ocean food web dynamics to impact on physical processes, based on the outcomes from other projects.

Throughout the life of the project, we will continue to assess the impact of uncertainties on model outcomes.

Project Objectives

• To develop a modelling framework for investigating the small and large-scale dynamics of marine foodwebs in the Southern Ocean, utilising data from ocean simulations, satellites and field surveys and monitoring.
• To use these dynamic models to investigate the consequences to the ecosystem of historical exploitation of biota in the Southern Ocean, the ecological sustainability of exploitation and conservation strategies in the Southern Ocean, and the impacts of climate change on the ecology of the Southern Ocean.

National Collaborators

• CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research
• Australian Government Antarctic Division

International Collaborators

• Old Dominion University (USA)
• University of California - Santa Cruz (USA)
• British Antarctic Survey (UK)
• Oregon State University (USA)

• AME-01: Project Background
• AME-01: Research Plan